|
Business Plan 2004-09: Financial Projections
In this section:
Assumptions |
Actual |
Projected |
Projected |
Projected |
Projected |
Projected |
| |
31/03/2004 |
31/3/2005 |
31/3/2006 |
31/3/2007 |
31/3/2008 |
31/3/2009 |
| |
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Economic Assumptions |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
Average loan interest payment (%) |
8.83 |
8.27 |
7.42 |
7.21 |
6.91 |
6.81 |
Inflation rate (%) |
2.50 |
2.50 |
2.50 |
2.50 |
2.50 |
2.50 |
Inflation rate maintenance (%) |
4.00 |
4.00 |
4.00 |
4.00 |
4.00 |
4.00 |
Cash Collection (%) |
99.14 |
98.00 |
98.00 |
98.00 |
98.00 |
98.00 |
Average weekly rent perunit-general needs (£) |
82.37 |
83.47 |
85.13 |
87.79 |
89.56 |
91.48 |
Average target rent perunit-general needs (£) |
78.41 |
81.33 |
83.66 |
86.29 |
88.88 |
91.55 |
Number of units -generalneeds |
322 |
341 |
366 |
396 |
426 |
456 |
Average weekly rent perunit - supported housing (£) |
64.43 |
67.21 |
69.22 |
71.30 |
73.44 |
75.64 |
Average target rent perunit - supported housing (£) |
65.43 |
67.21 |
69.22 |
71.30 |
73.44 |
75.64 |
Number of units-supported housing |
48 |
48 |
48 |
48 |
48 |
48 |
| |
New Developments |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
Total Cost of New Units |
0.0 |
3,259.0 |
4,642.8 |
4,921.4 |
5,216.7 |
5,529.6 |
Financed by : HousingCorporation Social Housing Grant |
0.0 |
2,075.6 |
2,957.5 |
3,134.9 |
3,323.0 |
3,522.4 |
Cash Reserves |
0.0 |
250.0 |
250.0 |
250.0 |
250.0 |
250.0 |
Loan Finance |
0.0 |
933.4 |
1,435.3 |
1,536.3 |
1,643.7 |
1,757 |
Total Financing |
0.0 |
3,259.0 |
4,642.8 |
4,921.2 |
5,216.7 |
5,529.6 |
| |
Homes in Management |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Social Housing at start of Year |
359 |
381 |
399 |
429 |
459 |
489 |
Social Housing at end of Year |
381 |
399 |
429 |
459 |
489 |
519 |
| |
Rent Arrears Current Tenants |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gross Arrears |
128 |
134 |
146 |
162 |
177 |
208 |
Provisionfor bad and doubtful debts |
56 |
59 |
64 |
72 |
78 |
92 |
NetArrears |
72 |
75 |
82 |
90 |
99 |
116 |
CASH FLOW |
Actual |
Actual |
Actual |
Actual |
Actual |
Projected |
Projected |
Projected |
Projected |
Projected |
for Year Ended |
31/03/2000 |
31/03/2001 |
31/03/2002 |
31/03/2003 |
31/03/2004 |
31/3/2005 |
31/3/2006 |
31/3/2007 |
31/3/2008 |
31/3/2009 |
| |
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| |
Operating surplus on social housing lettings |
633.1 |
509.0 |
658.6 |
766.0 |
731.7 |
784.6 |
805.8 |
906.7 |
1,004.6 |
1,126.5 |
Depreciation Charges |
19.4 |
54.6 |
61.4 |
57.1 |
67.5 |
81.9 |
91.5 |
101.6 |
112.3 |
123.7 |
Other Adjustments |
19.2 |
102.6 |
-54.9 |
-87.2 |
-44.0 |
20.4 |
-23.8 |
-32.4 |
-16.4 |
-30.0 |
NET CASH FLOW FROM ABOVE ACTIVITIES |
671.7 |
666.2 |
665.1 |
735.9 |
755.2 |
886.9 |
873.5 |
975.9 |
1,100.5 |
1,220.2 |
| |
Interest Receivable and other income |
64.8 |
88.5 |
75.1 |
31.5 |
26.7 |
30.0 |
30.0 |
30.0 |
30.0 |
30.0 |
Interest Payable and other charges |
415.9 |
381.0 |
418.4 |
475.4 |
443.2 |
620.0 |
632.4 |
721.7 |
817.2 |
919.3 |
| |
NET CASH FLOW FROM ABOVE ACTIVITIES |
320.6 |
373.7 |
321.8 |
292.0 |
338.7 |
296.9 |
271.1 |
284.2 |
313.3 |
330.9 |
| |
Net cash flow from investing activities |
-23.8 |
-46.5 |
-819.7 |
-686.4 |
-72.3 |
-3,774.1 |
-1,685.3 |
-1,786.5 |
-1,893.6 |
-2,007.3 |
Net cash flow from Financing activities |
-2.3 |
17.4 |
-7.6 |
-27.4 |
-6.9 |
3,524.1 |
1,435.3 |
1,536.5 |
1,643.6 |
1,757.3 |
| |
Cash carried forward |
1,530.3 |
1,874.9 |
1,369.4 |
947.6 |
1,207.1 |
1,254.0 |
1,275.1 |
1,309.3 |
1,372.6 |
1,453.5 |
INCOME and EXPENDITURE |
Actual |
Actual |
Actual |
Actual |
Actual |
Projected |
Projected |
Projected |
Projected |
Projected |
for Year Ended |
31/03/2000 |
31/03/2001 |
31/03/2001 |
31/03/2003 |
31/03/2004 |
31/3/2005 |
31/3/2006 |
31/3/2007 |
31/3/2008 |
31/3/2009 |
| |
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| |
Operating surplus on social housing lettings |
633.1 |
509.0 |
658.6 |
766.0 |
731.7 |
784.6 |
805.7 |
906.7 |
1,004.6 |
1,126.5 |
| |
Interest Receivable and other income |
64.8 |
89.1 |
73.6 |
29.4 |
26.7 |
30.0 |
30.0 |
30.0 |
30.0 |
30.0 |
| |
Interest Payable and other charges |
430.6 |
461.8 |
493.5 |
540.8 |
554.2 |
606.9 |
632.4 |
721.7 |
817.2 |
919.3 |
| |
Surplus for the year |
267.3 |
136.3 |
238.7 |
254.6 |
204.2 |
207.7 |
203.3 |
215.0 |
217.4 |
237.2 |
| |
Interest Cover |
1.62 |
1.30 |
1.48 |
1.47 |
1.37 |
1.34 |
1.32 |
1.30 |
1.27 |
1.26 |
| |
Interest cover with Property depn added back |
1.62 |
1.37 |
1.56 |
1.54 |
1.44 |
1.44 |
1.43 |
1.40 |
1.37 |
1.37 |
| |
Interest cover with depreciation added back(Bradford & Bing) |
1.67 |
1.41 |
1.61 |
1.58 |
1.49 |
1.48 |
1.47 |
1.44 |
1.40 |
1.39 |
INCOME and EXPENDITURE |
Actual |
Actual |
Actual |
Actual |
Actual |
Projected |
Projected |
Projected |
Projected |
Projected |
for Year Ended |
31/03/2000 |
31/03/2001 |
31/03/2002 |
31/03/2003 |
31/03/2004 |
31/3/2005 |
31/3/2006 |
31/3/2007 |
31/3/2008 |
31/3/2009 |
| |
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| |
Gross Rents Receivable |
1,357.1 |
1,435.3 |
1,493.5 |
1,663.8 |
1,628.2 |
1,735.2 |
1,896.8 |
2,097.9 |
2,288.1 |
2,488.0 |
Less : Rent Losses from Voids |
5.0 |
12.1 |
6.8 |
11.3 |
9.5 |
33.7 |
43.6 |
47.8 |
51.8 |
56.0 |
Charges for Supporting People Income |
|
|
|
|
255.2 |
256.8 |
256.8 |
259.4 |
261.2 |
262.9 |
Net Rents Receivable |
1,352.1 |
1,423.2 |
1,486.7 |
1,652.5 |
1,873.9 |
1,958.3 |
2,110.0 |
2,309.5 |
2,497.5 |
2,694.9 |
Revenue Grants |
125.3 |
138.7 |
141.9 |
185.8 |
9.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Development Income |
0.0 |
5.4 |
22.9 |
14.4 |
0.0 |
147.9 |
60.4 |
64.0 |
67.8 |
71.9 |
Other Income |
0.0 |
2.0 |
7.4 |
14.9 |
7.5 |
5.0 |
10.0 |
10.0 |
10.0 |
10.0 |
Total Income from Social Housing Lettings |
1,477.4 |
1,569.3 |
1,658.9 |
1,867.6 |
1,890.7 |
2,111.2 |
2,180.4 |
2,383.5 |
2,575.3 |
2,776.8 |
| |
Expenditure on Letting activities |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
Management |
481.0 |
512.6 |
532.2 |
533.7 |
442.7 |
556.3 |
565.5 |
604.7 |
616.7 |
653.6 |
Services |
97.5 |
104.3 |
110.5 |
114.4 |
82.4 |
93.0 |
99.7 |
107.7 |
116.1 |
124.8 |
Support Costs |
|
|
|
|
244.9 |
240.0 |
246.0 |
252.2 |
258.5 |
262.9 |
Routine maintenance |
243.0 |
137.7 |
118.2 |
153.1 |
136.8 |
138.7 |
143.1 |
156.0 |
169.5 |
183.7 |
Planned maintenance |
|
195.7 |
109.7 |
147.3 |
157.9 |
155.0 |
160.2 |
181.4 |
220.2 |
219.7 |
Major repairs expenditure |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
10.0 |
10.0 |
10.0 |
10.0 |
Rent Losses from bad Debts |
22.8 |
32.5 |
28.6 |
33.1 |
19.2 |
33.7 |
43.6 |
47.8 |
51.8 |
56.0 |
Depreciation of Housing Properties |
0.0 |
33.7 |
38.3 |
35.7 |
41.0 |
56.9 |
66.5 |
76.6 |
87.3 |
98.7 |
Development |
0.0 |
43.8 |
62.8 |
84.3 |
34.1 |
53.0 |
40.1 |
40.4 |
40.6 |
40.9 |
| |
Total Expenditure on social housing lettings |
844.3 |
1,060.3 |
1,000.3 |
1,101.6 |
1,159.0 |
1,326.6 |
1,374.7 |
1,476.8 |
1,570.7 |
1,650.3 |
| |
Operating surplus on social housing lettings |
633.1 |
509.0 |
658.6 |
766.0 |
731.7 |
784.6 |
805.7 |
906.7 |
1,004.6 |
1,126.5 |
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