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Business Plan 2009-14: Financial Projections
Summary of Key Assumptions 2009/14
Economic Assumptions
| |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
HOMES |
|
|
|
|
|
Sheltered Units |
25 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
Shared Supported Units |
38 |
38 |
38 |
38 |
38 |
General Needs units |
475 |
485 |
495 |
495 |
495 |
Total |
538 |
548 |
558 |
558 |
558 |
The Assumption is that unit number are fixed for the years 2009 with an additional 10 general needs units in both 2011 and 2012.
Inflation Rate (2009 to 2014) |
2.00% |
Variable interest rate (2009/2010) |
3.00% |
Variable interest rate (2010/2014) |
5.00% |
Rent Increase Rate (3 years 2012to 2014) |
2.50% |
Rent Increase Rate (2010/11) |
0.00% |
Rent Increase Rate (2009/10) |
5.50% |
Real Cost increases except maintenance |
0.50% |
Real Cost increases maintenance (2009/2014) |
1.00% |
Salary Cost Increase 2009/10 |
2.50% |
Salary Cost Increase 2009/14 |
2.50% |
Maintenance Costs (2009 to 2014) |
3.00% |
Overheads (2009 to 2014) |
2.50% |
SP Income 2009/10 |
2.60% |
SP Income 2010/2014 |
2.50% |
Staffing Levels no change in current establishment |
|
Scheme Appraisal Assumptions (years 2011and 2012)
Interest Rate |
7.00% |
General Needs Grant Rate |
58.00% |
Units General Needs per scheme |
10 |
Total Cost of General Needs Unit (2 Bed) |
£190K |
Purchase of Schemes in Management
The plan allows for Innisfree to purchase 29 units in management (in addition to the 48 Camden properties purchased in April 2009).
The average SHG rate is 68% on the 29 homes in management.
Homes |
538 |
548 |
558 |
558 |
558 |
Projected BALANCE SHEET as at 31st March 2010-2014 |
31/3/10 |
31/3/11 |
31/3/12 |
31/3/13 |
31/3/14 |
FIXED ASSETS |
£'000 |
£'000 |
£'000 |
£'000 |
£'000 |
Tangible Assets : |
Housing Properties at cost |
56,439 |
58,769 |
60,841 |
62,913 |
63,163 |
Depreciation |
551 |
713 |
888 |
1,068 |
1,253 |
Housing Properties at cost less dep'n |
55,888 |
58,056 |
59,953 |
61,845 |
61,910 |
Housing Association Grant |
37,587 |
39,267 |
40,369 |
41,471 |
41,471 |
| |
18,301 |
18,789 |
19,584 |
20,374 |
20,439 |
Other Tangible Fixed Assets |
42 |
28 |
35 |
25 |
28 |
| |
18,343 |
18,817 |
19,619 |
20,399 |
20,467 |
CURRENT ASSETS |
Debtors |
206 |
220 |
222 |
226 |
235 |
Cash at Bank and in hand |
365 |
1,462 |
771 |
116 |
139 |
| |
571 |
1,682 |
993 |
342 |
374 |
CREDITORS |
Amounts falling due within one year |
828 |
867 |
925 |
982 |
965 |
NET CURRENT ASSETS |
-257 |
815 |
68 |
-641
| -591
|
ASSETS LESS CURRENT LIABILITIES |
18,086 |
19,632 |
19,687 |
19,758 |
19,876 |
CREDITORS : |
Amounts falling due after one year |
13,573 |
14,936 |
14,795 |
14,655 |
14,515 |
CAPITAL AND RESERVES |
Non equity capital |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Income and expenditure account |
4,513 |
4,696 |
4,892 |
5,103 |
5,360 |
Total Reserves |
4,513 |
4,696 |
4,892 |
5,103 |
5,360 |
| |
18,086 |
19,632 |
19,687 |
19,758 |
19,875 |
Gearing Ratio |
32.24% |
33.97% |
32.69% |
31.47% |
30.99% |
Income & Expenditure 31ST MARCH 2009-14
Homes |
538 |
548 |
558 |
558 |
558 |
| |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
INCOME |
£'000 |
£'000 |
£'000 |
£'000 |
£'000 |
Rent and Service Charges |
2,858 |
2,893 |
3,005 |
3,100 |
3,178 |
Revenue Grants-Supporting People |
315 |
323 |
331 |
339 |
348 |
Development Income |
60 |
34 |
- |
- |
- |
Bank Interest /Other Income |
12 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
| |
3,245 |
3,262 |
3,348 |
3,452 |
3,538 |
EXPENDITURE |
Planned Maintenance Costs |
367 |
278 |
289 |
301 |
313 |
Day to Day Maintenance Costs |
197 |
203 |
209 |
216 |
222 |
Camden Properties maintenance |
51 |
53 |
54 |
56 |
57 |
Camden Costs other |
20 |
21 |
21 |
22 |
22 |
Direct Property Costs |
225 |
237 |
245 |
273 |
262 |
Salaries |
837 |
867 |
889 |
911 |
934 |
Bad Debts |
30 |
31 |
32 |
33 |
34 |
overheads |
287 |
270 |
274 |
294 |
300 |
Development Costs |
23 |
4 |
- |
- |
- |
Mortgage loan interest |
708 |
926 |
956 |
950 |
943 |
Scheme Interest |
61 |
21 |
- |
- |
- |
Property Depreciation |
104 |
162 |
175 |
180 |
185 |
Friends of Innisfree |
5 |
6 |
8 |
6 |
8 |
Operating Surplus/(Loss) |
2,914 |
3,079 |
3,153 |
3,241 |
3,280 |
Operating Surplus for the year |
330.7 |
183.1 |
195.7 |
211.1 |
257.5 |
Interest Cover |
1.430 |
1.193 |
1.205 |
1.222 |
1.273 |
Interest Cover with Property Depreciation added back |
1.565 |
1.364 |
1.388 |
1.412 |
1.469 |
CASHFLOW PROJECTION 2009-2014
Homes |
538 |
548 |
558 |
558 |
558 |
CASHFLOW |
2009/10 |
2010/11 |
2011/12 |
2012/13 |
2013/14 |
| |
£'000 |
£'000 |
£'000 |
£'000 |
£'000 |
Operating Surplus |
330.7 |
183.1 |
195.7 |
211.1 |
257.5 |
Interest Recd |
-3.0 |
-3.0 |
-3.0 |
-3.0 |
-3.0 |
Interest Paid |
768.5 |
947.0 |
956.0 |
950.0 |
943.0 |
Operating Surplus |
1096.2 |
1127.1 |
1148.7 |
1158.1 |
1197.5 |
Property Depreciation |
103.6 |
162.0 |
175.0 |
180.0 |
185.0 |
Other Depreciation |
30.0 |
20.0 |
20.0 |
20.0 |
20.0 |
Other Adjustments |
-44.8 |
19.8 |
27.8 |
43.7 |
-49.1 |
Net Cash Flow from Operating Activities |
1185.0 |
1328.9 |
1371.5 |
1401.8 |
1353.4 |
Interest received |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
Interest paid |
768.5 |
947.0 |
956.0 |
950.0 |
943.0 |
NET CASH INFLOW/OUTFLOW |
419.5 |
384.9 |
418.5 |
454.8 |
413.4 |
NET CASH IN(OUT)FLOW FROM INVESTING ACTIVITIES (net SHG) |
4926.0 |
650.0 |
970.0 |
970.0 |
250.0 |
NET CASH IN(OUT)FLOW FROM FINANCING ACTIVITIES |
-117.0 |
1362.0 |
-140.0 |
-140.0 |
-140.0 |
NET CASH INCREASE(DECREASE) IN CASH AND CASH EQUIVELENTS |
-4623.5 |
1096.9 |
-691.5 |
-655.2 |
23.4 |
Cash Balance brought forward |
4989.0 |
365.5 |
1462.4 |
770.8 |
115.6 |
Cash balance carried forward |
365.5 |
1462.4 |
770.8 |
115.6 |
139.0 |
Interest cover cash flow basis |
1.55 |
1.41 |
1.44 |
1.48 |
1.44 |
Key Historic Financial Statistics - Years 2001 to 2008
Year ended 31st March: |
Audited 2008 |
Audited 2007 |
Audited 2006 |
Audited 2005 |
Audited 2004 |
Audited 2003 |
Audited 2002 |
Audited 2001 |
Property Assets at cost (after dep'n) |
40499 |
36200 |
36277 |
27249 |
27696 |
27708 |
26361 |
24334 |
Social Housing Grant |
29701 |
26890 |
26890 |
21278 |
21657 |
21,657 |
20,952 |
19,698 |
Borrowing |
8680 |
8743 |
8763 |
4,261 |
4,274 |
4,287 |
4,314 |
4,322 |
Gearing Ratio |
25.84% |
28.30% |
28.96% |
17.51% |
17.70% |
17.91% |
18.79% |
20.13% |
Cash |
2283 |
3508 |
3241 |
2010 |
1207 |
950 |
1,369 |
1,875 |
Working capital Ratio |
3.20 |
5.15 |
4.82 |
2.52 |
2.03 |
1.78 |
2.45 |
3.38 |
Operating Surplus Before Interest |
987 |
772 |
879 |
1127 |
723 |
795 |
733 |
598 |
Interest Paid |
826 |
704 |
648 |
559 |
496 |
541 |
493 |
462 |
Interest Received |
130 |
160 |
78 |
49 |
27 |
29 |
74 |
89 |
Net Interest Paid |
696 |
544 |
570 |
510 |
469 |
512 |
419 |
373 |
Interest Cover |
1.19 |
1.10 |
1.36 |
2.01 |
1.46 |
1.47 |
1.49 |
1.29 |
Interest Cover with dep'n added back |
1.45 |
1.43 |
1.59 |
2.20 |
1.64 |
1.63 |
1.76 |
1.61 |
Available Surplus |
291 |
228 |
309 |
617 |
254 |
283 |
314 |
225 |
Reserves |
3889 |
3598 |
3370 |
3061 |
2493 |
2266 |
2011 |
1772 |
Forecasts |
2009 |
2008 |
2007 |
2006 |
2005 |
2004 |
2003 |
2002 |
Forecast Borrowing Rates (new borrowing) |
6.5 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
6.0 |
Forecast Deposit Rates |
5.00% |
4.50% |
4.50% |
3.50% |
3.50% |
3.50% |
3.50% |
3.50% |
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